With the year wrapping up, it’s around that time when those in the film world start discussing what this year’s Academy Awards will look like. The Academy Awards, more commonly known as The Oscars, is the most prestigious award show in the industry and serves as a pop cultural landmark, a way to look back on the state of movies that year. Regardless of your opinion on the current state of the event, or some of the Academy’s controversial picks over the years, it’s no secret that filmmakers and production companies are striving to take home one of these awards every spring. That being said, here’s my prediction for the Best Picture category, commonly considered the biggest award to take home. 

Dune: Part II

With a star-studded cast, a masterful score and a massive scale, the only thing holding back Denis Villuenueve’s critically-worshipped sci-fi blockbuster from being the clear frontrunner is its release date; the film came out the first of March this year, meaning it will have been over a full year since its release by the time the Oscars roll around. It’s honestly a tribute to this movie’s impact that it’s still this relevant to the best picture talk this late in the year. Brilliant performances from Timothee Chalamet, Austin Butler, and Zendaya propel this thing into an automatic must-watch and the atmosphere this movie brought to the big screen was unmatched.

 Gladiator II

Another blockbuster sequel makes the list, although Ridley Scott’s long awaited second chapter frankly serves more as a reboot than a direct continuation— with an entire new cast of characters but a very similar plot. This was one of the most anticipated epics of the year and it has crushed it commercially. Critically, however, the movie feels a little silly at times and many critics do not take it seriously as a sequel to the 2000 classic. Overall though, signature performances from Denzel Washington and Paul Mescal alongside some massive set pieces and scenes are the reason Gladiator 2 is on here.

Wicked

Despite the mixed critical reviews, Wicked is arguably this year’s biggest movie moment. The smash-hit broadway musical coming to the big screen is something fans have anticipated for years now, and I think the movie’s ability to satisfy that anticipation is what puts it here. Probably my least favorite on this list, but also one I am the most sure will get the nomination because of the product it delivered as a whole and the cultural moment it has brought for a lot of people. 

A Complete Unknown

James Mangold’s take on Bob Dylan throughout the early 1960s is set to hit theaters Christmas day, just in time for the upcoming award season. Early reviews rave about the film, praising Timothee Chalamet’s portrayal of the American icon as well as the surrounding cast of characters, with folk icons like Joan Baez, Woody Guthrie and Johnny Cash. It’s hard to say much without seeing it, but if this movie delivers as promised and offers an intimate look at Dylan’s life in the early 60s, it is more than likely it will see a Best Picture Nomination. 

A Real Pain

Jesse Eisenberg’s latest film stars himself alongside seemingly the unstoppable force that is Kieran Culkin, who is coming off his Emmy winning performance in the HBO series Succession. The movie is an emotional story of estranged cousins who reconnect after their Grandmother’s passing. This is a film handled with such obvious care for its message, and it is a tender and personal story audiences can resonate with. Likely the least commercially successful film on this list, A Real Pain would be a major underdog in this race but I would not be surprised to see it earn a nomination.