When we picture winter, we think of cold weather and of course, snow. Snow is such a big part of winter, but the Triangle has gone more than 1,000 days without measurable snowfall. It’s one of the longest streaks ever in our area. Will snow lovers’ dreams come true this year or will the triangle remain snowless?

Before we answer this question we need to know about some factors that could affect snowfall this year. La Niña is occurring this year. During La Niña events, trade winds are stronger than usual, pushing warmer water toward Asia. Upwelling increases off the west coast of the Americas, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface. These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North.

Due to La Niña, North Carolina will experience a warmer than normal winter. This continues the trend of our warming climate locally over the past 60 years. Our average winter temperatures have gone up more than six degrees from an average of around 40° in the 1960s to nearly 47° so far this decade. According to NOAA maps the average temperature between November and January will be 40%-50% higher than average. While snow remains a possibility, the question of how much is a tricky one. Most Apex High students are not hopeful that we will have snow since it has been so long. Both Bella Sharpe and Rakshana Prabhu don’t think it is going to snow but said they would love it if we did have snow.

The Farmer’s Almanac predicts that this will be a snowy winter. If you’re wondering how accurate The Farmer’s Almanac is, they have an accuracy rate of 80% which is impressively high. Carol Connare, the editor-in-chief said they are projecting a  “temperate, uneventful winter—potentially a welcome reprieve from the extremes of recent years. For North Carolina specifically, according to the Almanac, we will have a mild and snowy winter. Along with the Almanac, Meteorologists have predicted 3 inches of snow this January. So while we will have a warmer winter our chance of snow is looking positive.